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Dubai's debt crisis does not change the trend of China's economic rise

    In recent days, the Dubai sovereign debt crisis hit the global capital markets, A-share market was not spared,booster cables the market worried about the crisis in Dubai will make the world economy into recession in the second. Many experts believe that Dubai is just a localized crisis, crisis and recovery trends in the current round of the Chinese economy will not be terminated outside the local crisis.

    Will not threaten global economic recovery.

    Chen Dong Qi,battery clip vice president of Macroeconomic Research State Development and Reform Commission believes that Dubai and the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy debt crisis on the world economy has a very big difference.

    Chen Dongqi summarized six differences: First, Dubai is a small economy,tow rope and Lehman was a few trillion of assets under management worldwide, is several times more than in Dubai; Second, the crisis in the desert of Dubai, do not open. Lehman on Wall Street in the World Financial Center, radiation wide; the third, Dubai's debt default led to delayed payments, in fact, such things happen often, but not insolvent liquidation,ratchet tie dowm and Lehman is completely different; fourth Dubai's debt is very short chain, although it will affect the relevant bank and building materials, but the range of terms from the industry and are relatively small. The subprime mortgage crisis, Lehman has triggered a long chain; Fifth, China, the United States, Europe, Japan, the four economies are not in the stimulus fade out, or pushed up the power, which Lehman last 9 15 is not the case; sixth, Lehman in the late recession, often as a rock slope, inertia amplification. Dubai crisis early recovery in the global economy is the power from bottom to top, it will not affect the trend.

    Tsinghua University, China and World Economy Research Center Director Li Daokui also believes that Dubai's financial crisis is not a global crisis. He said that Dubai World is not a financial company, did not issue a large number of financial instruments, does not cause a complex set of consequences. In addition, neighboring emirate of Dubai, including other Middle Eastern countries, most likely out of the Gulf region to consider the image of hand assistance. Dubai's oil is basically light, so the global oil price rises of Dubai's economic prospects with nothing to do. Or to the entire Middle East in terms of excess liquidity, easy to get money from other countries to save Dubai. Therefore, the crisis in Dubai will not be unlimited expansion.

    But there are reservations about the experts. Beijing Private Equity Association executive director of the high Zhikai that Dubai crisis is not an isolated incident. World Bank and International Monetary Fund released data show that there are trillions of dollars worldwide commercial real estate hole unresolved. If the Dubai big issue in the framework of the commercial real estate inside the point of view, to be very serious, and perhaps this is just the beginning.

    China's economy will continue to grow steadily.

    Debt crisis in the Dubai, located in the regional financial crisis, many experts on the trend of A shares who are more optimistic.

    Galaxy Securities Research Institute Tengtai that short-term market decline can be interpreted as an increase in the adjustment process, from the international environment, international capital side, the listed companies is expected, so the valuation point of view there is no problem. He believes that China's stock market in December during the year to record a new high, breaking the 3478 point, the adjustment only to do a good multi-year market preparation, and the first quarter of next year, is also very good investment opportunities.

    On next year's macroeconomic policy, the State Council Development Research Center, Xia Bin, director of finance that strategy next year should not exceed the physical point of steady economic growth money supply, and to return to a normal year as the monetary growth rate, highlighting the appropriate, trimming. May be other policy instruments with a more relaxed monetary conditions with and ensure the steady growth of the real economy.

    Li Daokui that fiscal policy is vast. He suggested that the state-owned assets into fiscal policy, through a gradual reduction to make up for possible large-scale budget deficits, the fiscal deficit by way of encouraging private investment, green investment, seize the time to nurture the next 5-10 years a green industry.

    For next year, investors concerned about whether there will be problems of high inflation, Chen Dongqi that the CPI can be controlled next year, in 1978-2008 the average of 31 years below the level of 5.68%, 3% is a safe. His argument is that the supply point of view, grain, meat, food reserves and more effective supply capacity is high; water, electric and other public products, price increases will be the ladder in nature, moderate. In addition, price elasticity of demand will gradually increase the intensity is not imported inflation recently.

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